The latest forecast from McKinsey Consulting on the disruptive trends unfolding in the automotive sector is very much along the lines of what I have been saying for quite a while. It predictions comes packaged in a nice, easy to consume slick video presentation shown below.
Among the major disruptions, the ones I see having direct and tremendous social and roadsafety implications are ridesharing and vehicle automation, both aided by a confluence of technology and consumer aversion for driving/owning automobiles. Of course, the pace of disruption will be dictated by the Federal policies and that means our lawmakers must remain nimble and be willing to set aside their political ideologies to help the industry as it leaps forward.
Scenarios for growth of vehicle automation. Source: McKinsey
There is so much confusion and variation in the estimates/predictions when you hear the industry experts and forecasters talk about automated vehicles. Despite the challenges, there has been significant progress in the recent years and it is only getting more intense as the auto OEMs as well the tech geeks in Silicon Valley ramp up their investments and the research in the race to reach the holy grail.. Amidst all this chaos, comes this bold prediction.. 180,000 self-driving cars will be shipped globally by 2020.
Based on Frost & Sullivan estimates charted for us by BI Intelligence, there will be about 180,000 self-driving cars shipped globally by 2020. The market research firm adds that “you are likely to commute in autonomous cars” by 2025, which is a pretty bold statement considering that’s only a decade from now.
And of course the source article doesn’t clearly articulate whether it is all Level 4 autonomy (no human input needed for operation)? Do you agree with this prediction? Click here to read the article
Add this to one of the million other articles you would see around the web that hypes the arrival of self-driving cars and how they are going to change our lives..
Despite the bold predictions (75% of vehicles on road will be autonomous by 2040!!!), the infographic below visually captures some of the benefits of autonomous vehicles..
From: Bankrate Insurance’s InsuranceQuotes.com
Google hits a home-run with this real-life demonstration of its autonomous vehicle by putting a vision-impaired person behind the driving wheel in the regular streets. Steve Mahan, the man behind the wheel, is legally blind (95% gone) and he goes about what most of us drivers do in a normal day – runs errands, stops by a drive-through window for a burrito, picks up his dry cleaning, etc – all this without touching the steering wheel. For people like him this self-driving car should feel like a god-sent and the level of autonomy it offers should be priceless.
