Questionable future? Recharging and other concerns keep electric cars far from mainstream
(Source: Washington Post)
It was dark and rainy, and the battery on his nifty Mini E electric car was almost gone.
Paul Heitmann rolled quietly through the suburban New Jersey gloom, peering through the rain on the windshield, not sure what he was looking for, anxiety turning into panic. He needed juice. He spotted a Lukoil gas station, which was closed, and beside the point, anyway. But beyond the pumps, there was a Coke machine, and it was lit up.
“I thought ‘Finally!’ because I knew if there was light, there would be electricity,” he said. “I managed to find the outlet behind the Coke machine and plugged in.”
As many of the auto companies tell it, next year may be the year that the massive U.S. auto industry really begins to go electric.
The all-battery Leaf from Nissan is scheduled to go on sale in November. General Motors will begin selling the Chevy Volt, a primarily electric car (with a small auxiliary gasoline engine that kicks in to boost the car’s range). Ford has plans to produce an electric commercial van. The Obama administration has doled out $2.4 billion to companies involved in producing batteries and other parts of electric cars.
“We have to get on with the electrification of our industry,” William Clay Ford Jr., chairman of Ford, said during a visit to Washington on Monday.
“I know we have to have an electric car,” GM Chairman Edward E. Whitacre Jr. told reporters last week.
But overshadowing prospects for the transition of the vast U.S. auto fleet to electric — and the billions of dollars the automakers have invested in the switch — is the question of whether anyone beyond a sliver of enthusiasts will soon embrace the newfangled cars, which force drivers to rethink their habits and expectations of convenience.
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National Labs Developing Methodology for Estimating Real World Fuel and Electricity Consumption of Plug-in Hybrids
(Source: Green Car Congress)
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Researchers from the US Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) are cooperating to develop and test a method for predicting the real-world fuel and electricity consumption of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) by adjusting dynamometer test results. After examining data on the only PHEV currently available in large numbers, the new adjustment method shows promise for reasonably predicting PHEV average fuel and electricity use, despite differences in design.
Current rules for conventional vehicles do not work for plug-in hybrids because the vehicles run on both electricity and gasoline; industry debate centers on the rules for estimating miles per gallon. This was highlighted by the reaction to GM’s announcement that the Chevy Volt would attain 230 mpg in the city cycle, given a single charge per day, along with combined cycle electricity consumption of 25 kWh/100 miles, based on a draft EPA methodology. (Earlier post.)
PHEV testing is further complicated by the fact that these vehicles operate in two different modes based on the distance they are driven (initially depleting energy from the large vehicle battery, and eventually sustaining the battery charge for longer distance driving). Consensus is building on techniques to handle these first two complications, but one question that remains is how to adjust raw certification cycle test results to best predict a PHEV’s average real-world energy use.
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Time.com explores the battle of zero-emission technologies in the automobile world
(Source: Time)
Q’Orianka Kilcher has never pumped a gallon of gasoline into her car. Never. Then again, she’s never owned a car that needed gasoline. You could say she is at ground zero of the ZE, or zero-emission, vehicle future.
A 19-year-old actress living in Santa Monica, Calif. (she played Pocahontas in the 2005 movie The New World), Q’Orianka (pronounced Quor-ee-anka) is on her second hydrogen-fuel-cell car, a Honda FCX Clarity, a four-door with a 200-mile range. “I don’t think I will ever buy a gas car,” she says. “I can go everywhere I want to go with this. Plus, it’s a guy magnet.”
Auto-marketing gurus take note: the brave new world of ZE cars is here, ready or not, and please make them sexy.
“ZEs are an entirely different paradigm,” says Stephen Ellis, manager of fuel-cell-vehicle marketing for American Honda Motor Co. in Torrance, Calif. Ellis manages the rare $600-a-month leases (including free hydrogen fill-ups) for the FCX Clarity. “Knowing how to integrate these new technologies into existing lifestyles and then building new infrastructures to make it work is the trick,” says Ellis. “It took a hundred years to create the gasoline infrastructure; this will be much faster.”
There are three types of zero, or near zero, emission cars: electric plug-ins, hybrid plug-ins and hydrogen fuel cells (which create power by having oxygen and hydrogen pass over electricity-generating electrodes). But each major automaker has its own take on which advanced technology will win 10 years down the road.
Nissan, for example, is pedal-to-the-metal with pure electric cars, having skipped fuel-cell technology altogether. It considers “interim hybrid technology,” like Toyota’s successful Prius, a mere passing phase. “The market-share winner will be the one that offers affordable, mass-market, zero-emission vehicles with a zero payback period for premium technologies,” says Mark Perry, director of the product planning and strategy group for Nissan North America.
In contrast to Nissan, Honda has passed up pure electrics, preferring instead to bank on lower-cost hybrids (Civic and Insight) and hydrogen fuel cells. Ellis, however, claims no distinction should be made between “FCs” and electrics, since a fuel-cell car is basically an electric car powered by hydrogen-created electricity.
Then there is Toyota, the 800-pound hybrid gorilla. Toyota has yet a third route to success: muscling up on its hybrid strength.
“We believe in not being first to market but being best to market,” says Mary Nickerson, who is in charge of advanced-vehicle marketing at Toyota Motor Sales, also in Torrance. Last year, Toyota reached the 1 million sales mark with its Prius hybrid (gas-powered with fuel-saving electric technology).
“Our strategy is to be the hybrid masters, no pure electrics, and to explore fuel-cell technology,” says Nickerson. “We feel it’s going to take a lot more than one technology to make this new market work.”
Some 21% of consumers will not consider a pure electric car because of the need to plug-in at home, according Nickerson. “We believe that 10 years out, the winners will be all new technologies, but hybrids will be the largest winner of them all.”
Then again, as Honda’s Ellis says, “It all depends on the price of gas.”
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US Hybrid Vehicle Sales Down 45.5% in April
(Source: Green Car Congress)
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Reported sales of hybrids in the US reported by Toyota, Honda, Ford, GM and Nissan dropped 45.5% year-on-year in April to 21,735, despite full month sales for the new Honda Insight and the Ford Fusion and Milan hybrids. Total LDV sales in the US were down 34.4%.
The reported sales represented a 2.65% hybrid new vehicle market share (based on Autodata’s total LDV sales figure)—the highest monthly new vehicle share for hybrids so far this year, but below the 3.2% high mark in April 2008. Year-to-date in 2009, hybrids are holding a 2.4% new vehicle market share.
Toyota. Overall, Toyota saw a 62.8% drop year-on-year in its combined hybrid sales in April 2009. Year-to-date US sales of Toyota hybrids through April are down 51% to 49,660 units from 101,334 for the same period last year.
In advance of the market introduction of the new 2010 Prius, Toyota Prius sales dropped 61.5% in April to 8,385 units from 21,757. Other results:
- Sales of the Camry Hybrid were down 67.1% to 2,198 units, representing 8.7% of Camry sales. Sales of conventional Camry models were down 31%.
- Sales of the Highlander Hybrid were down 63.8% to 933 units, representing 16.7% of Highlander sales. Sales of conventional Highlander models were down 37%.
- Sales of the RX 400h Hybrid were down 59.7% to 655 units, representing 10.5% of RX sales. Sales of conventional RX models were up 1%.
- Sales of the GS450h were down 59.8% to 33 units, representing 7.1% of GS sales. Sales of conventional GS models were down 71%.
- Sales of the LS 600h L were down 84.4% to 19 units, representing 2.5% of LS sales. Sales of the conventional LS models were down 60%
Honda. With the first full month of sales of the Insight, Honda moved up to the number two slot behind Toyota, with 5,457 units sold. The Insight sold 2,096 units in April, and pushed combined Honda hybrid sales up 25% year-on-year. In April 2008, Honda had the Civic Hybrid on sale as well as the low-selling Accord Hybrid (25 units in April 2008).
Honda sold 3,361 Civic Hybrids in April, down 22.3% year-on-year, and representing 12.8% of all Civics sold. Sales of conventional Civic models were down 23% in April.
Ford. The addition of the new Fusion and Milan hybrids pushed combined Ford hybrid sales to 2,299 units, up 21% compared to April 2008. Ford posted 1,134 units of the Escape and Mariner Hybrids, down 40.5% year-on-year, and representing 7.3% of Escape and Mariner sales. Sales of conventional Escape and Mariner models were down 13% year-on-year.
The new Fusion and Milan hybrid sedans sold a combined 1,165 units, representing 5.7% of all Fusion and Milan sales in April. Sales of conventional models of the Fusion and Milan climbed 3% year-on-year in April.
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Over 1.8 Million new and used cars
In line with the national trend, high gas prices drive changes in California fuel consumption
(Source & Image: LA Times)
Drivers are turning to alternative fuels and cutting consumption.
Messer still owns such classic rides as a 1963 Lincoln Continental, a 1953 Cadillac Fleetwood and a Saleen Mustang. Yet the only car Messer wants to talk about is the $24,000 Honda Civic GX that runs on compressed natural gas, which he bought in February 2008 as gasoline prices rose toward a July peak above $4 a gallon.
“I can get to the museum from my home in Riverside and back on one tank easily,” driving alone in the carpool lane, Messer said. “I pay $1.35 a gallon to fill it up, and the price is capped at $1.99 a gallon. I’ll never have to pay more than that. No matter what happens to the price of gasoline.”
Messer is hardly alone in his aversion to steep gas prices. California drivers appear to believe that gasoline shouldn’t cost more than $2 a gallon, and they have been proving it for nearly three years.
Gasoline consumption in California began falling in April 2006, and for 11 straight calendar quarters dropped below gas use in the year-earlier period even though the state added 790,000 new licensed drivers. First-quarter gasoline use hasn’t yet been released by the California State Board of Equalization, which on Thursday said Californians consumed 1.21 billion gallons of gasoline in January, down 22 million gallons, or 1.8%, from the previous January.
Agency statistics show the pattern began between January and September 2005, when the average gas price climbed from $1.96 to $3.06.
That was California’s first brush with $3-a-gallon gas. It lasted just two weeks in 2005, according to the Energy Department’s weekly survey of filling stations, but it was long enough to trigger behavior changes.
For all of 2005, gasoline consumption rose by just 30 million gallons to 15.95 billion gallons, according to the state equalization board, which gathers the numbers from taxes paid by fuel distributors. The pace was well off the boom years from 2000 to 2004, when gas use grew by an average of 343 million gallons a year.
“The tipping point is $2,” said Amy Myers Jaffe, senior energy analyst at Rice University’s James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy in Houston. “People start to respond to fuel prices and make changes at $2 a gallon. At $3 a gallon, it becomes noticeable. It really gains in momentum. The longer the price stays higher than $3, the deeper and more lasting the structural changes.”
In 2007, with gasoline prices above $3 a gallon for 34 weeks, California consumption fell 270 million gallons below 2005 levels. In 2008, with gasoline topping $4.58 a gallon in July and the depth of the nation’s economic crisis beginning to sink in, Californians used 910 million fewer gallons than they did in 2005.
Messer turned to a different fuel. Stephen Stone of Norwalk bought an all-electric Zap Xebra. Robert Cruz of Oxnard went back to a 1970 Volkswagen because it got better mileage than anything else he’s driven. Alan Thomas of Oxnard adds a few gallons of transmission fluid to his tank to cut fuel costs.
“Sometimes I just used to go out and take a drive,” Thomas said. “When was the last time you heard anyone say, ‘I’m going out for a drive’? I don’t drive any more than I have to now.”
Millions of other Americans also are parking more. A 2008 Brookings Institution report called “The Road . . . Less Traveled” found that “consistent annual growth” in vehicle miles traveled in the U.S. leveled off in 2004. By 2007, miles driven declined for the first time since 1980 and at the fastest rate since the end of World War II, said Robert Puentes, senior fellow at Brookings’ metropolitan policy program and a co-author of the report.
“Americans have simply been driving less. . . . At the same time driving has declined, transit use is at its highest level since the 1950s, and Amtrak ridership just set an annual ridership record in 2008,” Puentes wrote.
Some experts say Americans are far less likely to accept high fuel prices than their European counterparts.
In the U.S., “we have always had cheap gasoline for the most part and most Americans don’t feel like they have that much of an alternative,” said Bruce Bullock, director of the Maguire Energy Institute at Southern Methodist University in Dallas. “The higher prices go here, the more people feel like they are being taken for a ride.”
Another factor in changed driving behavior is anger, said Suzanne Shu, an assistant professor of marketing at the UCLA Anderson School of Business. Price surges in other consumer items, such as milk, tend to get lost in larger grocery bills. But buying gas is often a trip of its own, and the price is “in your face, almost every block,” Shu said.
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Reality Check on Plug-In Hybrids
(Source: Seattle Times)
Remember last spring, when Seattle’s mayor rolled out the city’s first car that could be “filled at the plug instead of the pump?”
It’s called a plug-in hybrid. They are all the green rage — “possibly the most sought-after technological innovation since Captain Kirk first flipped open his communicator,” says The New York Times.
You may have seen the city’s cars around town, painted with an eye-catching claim on the rear bumper: “This plug-in hybrid gets 100+mpg.”
Also, a greener boast: “150+City MPG!”
Not exactly, it turns out. Not even close.
Try 51 miles per gallon, city and highway combined. Not counting the cost of the electricity.
It’s what 14 plug-in Priuses averaged after driving a total of 17,636 miles. The pilot project is one of the few in the nation to subject plug-in hybrid cars to regular motor-pool duty, as opposed to being driven by hypermilers or alt-energy enthusiasts.
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