Pew Research Center survey shows Americans’ undying love affair with cars; ranks cars above all else among list of necessities; but cutting back on driving

May 7, 2009 at 12:10 am

(Source: TOLLROADSnews)

Americans are driving less because of the recession but a survey by the Pew Research Center show they still rank a car as the number one necessity of modern life.  Driving less and eliminating “unnecessary” car trips has been one of the leading ways people say they save money, according to the poll (see bottom of this report.) Asked to say whether an item is a necessity or a luxury 88% say a car is a necessity compared to:

  • 66% for a clothes dryer; 
  • 54% home airconditioning
  • 52% TV
  • 50% home computer
  • 49% cell phone
  • less for other items

The Pew Center opinion pollers describe the automobile as the “ultimate survivor.”    “It’s been around for nearly a century, but in good times or bad, it retains its pride of place at the top of America’s list of everyday necessities.”  The survey was conducted April 2-8 2009 with a sample of 1003 persons. 

Click here to access/download the survey report.  Here is a related article published on Transportgooru reflecting a significant decline in the vehicle miles traveled across the US, somehow validates the data on the above image (“Is there anything else that you have done to save money during the recession”?)

Americans Driving Less- Temporary, or Permanent? – Esquire’s Nate Silver wonders if we are near the end of car culture

Americans still driving around too much? Not really, says USDOT: Decline In American Driving Still Evident

Biofuels Get a Boost – Secretary Chu Announces Nearly $800 Million from Recovery Act to Accelerate Biofuels Research and Commercialization

May 6, 2009 at 11:30 pm

(Source: GreenBiz via Reuters)

The Obama administration established a Biofuels Interagency Working Group this week in a move that carries implications for the industry on several fronts, including regulatory and research and development. 
 
The Biofuels Interagency Working Group, comprised of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Department of Energy (DOE)  and Department of Agriculture, will develop a biofuel market development program, coordinate biofuel infrastructure policies, study biofuel lifecycle and help existing biofuel producers secure credit and refinancing.

Meanwhile, the DOE will spend $786.5 million in stimulus funds on demonstration projects and research to accelerate the adoption of next-generation biofuels. 

For example, the agency will dole out $480 million on 10 to 20 pilot-scale and demonstration-scale projects, with a ceiling of $25 million and $50 million, respectively. Another $176.5 million shall be used to increase funding for two or more commercial-scale biorefinery projects that previously received government assistance.

The DOE biomass program also will dedicate $130 million toward research into ethanol, algal biofuels and biofuel sustainability research.

The proposal breaks down renewable fuels into four categories: cellulosic biofuels, biomass-derived diesel, advanced biofuels, and total renewable fuel. The fuels must produce fewer greenhouse gas emissions than conventional fuels, but there is great debate within the biofuel industry about how these lifecycle assessments should be calculated.

FYI, the Department of Energy press release offers the following breakdown of the funding categories identified above:

$480 million solicitation for integrated pilot- and demonstration-scale biorefineries

Projects selected under this Funding Opportunity Announcement will work to validate integrated biorefinery technologies that produce advanced biofuels, bioproducts, and heat and power in an integrated system, thus enabling private financing of commercial-scale replications.

DOE anticipates making 10 to 20 awards for refineries at various scales and designs, all to be operational in the next three years.  The DOE funding ceiling is $25 million for pilot-scale projects and $50 million for demonstration scale projects.

These integrated biorefineries will reduce dependence on petroleum-based transportation fuels and chemicals. They will also facilitate the development of an “advanced biofuels” industry to meet the federal Renewable Fuel Standards.

Transportation for America’s Public Health and Safety Webinar Wrap

May 6, 2009 at 6:21 pm

Transportation for America hosted the fourth webinar in the ongoing series last Thursday, April 30. More than 270 people signed up to hear from health, safety and active transportation experts on the effects of our transportation policy on public health and safety.

 Following up on the webinar, we’ve released the 5th in a series of policy papers, focusing on public health and safety.

Our current transportation system puts our health and safety in jeopardy by contributing to sedentary behaviors, hazardous pollution levels, difficult access to health care, and preventable injuries and deaths.

As the panelists demonstrated, we need federal leadership to help make the critical link between health, safety, and transportation policies and create communities that promote active living, reduce pollution levels, increase accessibility, and ensure safety for all transportation users.  Panelists also addressed the transportation needs among older Americans, minorities, low-income residents, and people who live in both rural and metropolitan areas — all of whom deserve safe transportation that improves health outcomes.

Click here to learn more about the panelsist’s views.

USDOT Inspector General’s audit finds nation’s air traffic systems vulnerable to cyber attack

May 6, 2009 at 4:48 pm

(Source: Associated Press

WASHINGTON — The nation’s air traffic control systems are vulnerable to cyber attacks, and support systems have been breached in recent months allowing hackers access to personnel records and network servers, according to a new report.

The audit done by the Department of Transportation’s inspector general concluded that although most of the attacks disrupted only support systems, they could spread to the operational systems that control communications, surveillance and flight information used to separate aircraft.

 The report noted several recent cyber attacks, including a February incident when hackers gained access to personal information on about 48,000 current and former FAA employees, and an attack in 2008 when hackers took control of some FAA network servers.

Auditors said the Federal Aviation Administration is not able to adequately detect potential cyber security attacks, and it must better secure its systems against hackers and other intruders.

“In our opinion, unless effective action is taken quickly, it is likely to be a matter of when, not if, ATC (air traffic control) systems encounter attacks that do serious harm to ATC operations,” the auditors said.

In response to the findings, FAA officials stressed that the support systems and traffic control networks are separated. But they agreed that more aggressive action should be taken to secure the networks and fix high-risk vulnerabilities.

According to the report, the FAA received 800 cyber incident alerts during the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30, 2008, and more than 150 were not resolved before the year finished. Fifty of those, the auditors said, had been open for more than three months, “including critical incidents in which hackers may have taken over control” of some computers.

Officials tested Internet-based systems that are used to provide information to the public such as communications frequencies for pilots, as well as internal FAA computer systems. The tests found nearly 4,000 “vulnerabilities,” including 763 viewed as “high risk.” The vulnerabilities including weak passwords, unprotected file folders, and other software problems.

The weaknesses could allow hackers or internal FAA workers to gain access to air traffic systems, and possibly compromise computers there or infect them with malicious codes or viruses, the audit warned.

Click here to read the entire article.  For those interested in downloading the report click here. Shown below is a read-only version of the audit report (in PDF).

  

Check-mate in the high seas! Chinese and American ships clash again in Yellow Sea

May 6, 2009 at 12:44 pm

(Source: Times Online, UK)

China demonstrated its growing naval confidence again in the latest standoff between American and Chinese ships.

Photo Courtesy: Frederic J Browne/EPA

The fifth such incident in two months occurred on Friday in the Yellow Sea when a US Navy surveillance ship turned its fire hoses on two Chinese fishing vessels.

A spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry said that the American ship was operating in China’s exclusive economic zone without permission and had violated Chinese and international laws. “We express our concern about this and demand the US side take effective measures to ensure a similar incident does not happen again,” he said.

The USNS Victorious, an ocean surveillance ship designed for anti-submarine warfare and underwater mapping, was conducting what the Pentagon called routine operations in the waters between China and the Korean peninsula. The Chinese vessels came within 100ft (30 metres) of the vessel.

The Pentagon, which accused five Chinese fishing vessels of harassing another US surveillance ship in the South China Sea near Hainan island in March, cited the incident as an example of unsafe Chinese seamanship.

The Chinese vessels did not withdraw until after the Victorious had sounded an alarm and a Chinese military ship, identified by the Pentagon as WAGOR 17, arrived in response to the call for assistance. It shone a light on the fishing vessels until they left.

The Pentagon earlier played down the confrontation, striking a more low-key tone than during the incident two months ago.

A spokesman for the US Defence Department suggested that the United States was looking to avoid the kind of angry exchanges that followed the March incident. He said: “We will be developing a way forward to deal with this diplomatically.”

It was not the first time the Victorious had encountered Chinese boats. On April 7 and April 8, Chinese-flagged fishing vessels approached the ship and the USNS Loyal as they operated within China’s 200-mile economic zone.

Environmental cost of corn-based ethanol rings alarm bells – 50 gallons of water needed to make enough corn-based ethanol to move a vehicle one mile

May 6, 2009 at 12:29 pm

(Source: Autobloggreen)

The nail in the coffin of corn-based ethanol might be made of water. The magazine Environmental Science & Technology has published an article that pegs the amount of water needed to make enough corn ethanol to move a vehicle one mile at 50 gallons. That’s pretty high. 

ES&T calculated the amount of water needed to grow the corn as well as the water that is affected by agriculture. From the article:

As biofuel production increases, a growing need exists to understand and mitigate potential impacts to water resources, primarily those associated with the agricultural stages of the biofuel life cycle (e.g., water shortages and water pollution) herein referred to as the water footprint.

The worst case scenario, ES&T found, would be irrigated sorghum grown in Nebraska and turned into ethanol. This would use up to 115 gallons per mile. Corn grown there would require 50 gallons of water per mile. Say good-bye to “food vs. fuel,” say hello to “Drink or drive.”

Click here to read the entire article.

TRB Transportation Research E-Newsletter – May 5, 2009

May 5, 2009 at 6:49 pm

TRB News

 2010 TRB 89th Annual Meeting and Transportation Research Record: Calls for Papers TRB standing committees have issued more than 40 calls for papers for the TRB 89th Annual Meeting, January 10-14, 2010, in Washington, D.C, and the Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board (TRR). While papers addressing any relevant aspect of transportation research will be considered, some committees are soliciting papers in specific subject areas to help potential authors identify topics for their papers. Committees will be producing calls for papers through June, so authors should visit this site periodically. [More]

Fiscal Year 2010 Freight and Hazardous Materials Problem Statements Sought – Candidate Statements Due July 31, 2009 Candidate Statements Due July 31, 2009 TRB’s National Cooperative Freight Research Program (NCFRP) and Hazardous Materials Cooperative Research Program (HMCRP) have issued a request for problem statements identifying research needed for NCFRP’s and HMCRP’s FY 2010 programs.  Research problem statements, which will form the basis for selection of the next round of research projects by the respective programs, are due by July 31, 2009.  The NCFRP and HMCRP are applied, contract research programs with objectives of developing information that will be used to improve the efficiency, reliability, safety, and security of the nation’s freight transportation system.  Anyone may submit a research problem statement and the process is easy. So, if you have any potential research topics, TRB would welcome your submission. New projects will be selected in the fall of 2009. [More]

Fiscal Year 2010 Transit Cooperative Research Program Legal Studies Topics Recommendations Due by July 1, 2009 The Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP) is soliciting ideas on candidate topics for the FY 2010 Legal Studies Program. The TCRP Legal Studies Program reports on legal issues associated with transit and intermodal law. Each document is intended to provide transit attorneys with authoritative, well-researched, specific information that is limited in scope. The studies focus on legal issues and problems having national significance to the transit industry. [More]

NCHRP FY 2010 Projects: Oversight Panel Nominee Solicitation Nominations Due May 29, 2009  TRB’s National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) is soliciting nominees to serve on oversight panels for new projects being established under the NCHRP’s FY 2010 program. Nominees should have expertise directly relevant to the proposed project topic. To help identify nominees who are members of historically underrepresented groups, TRB encourages the nomination of women and members of minority groups.  Panels for the new projects are scheduled to meet beginning in late July through September. Panel members are prohibited from submitting or participating in preparation of proposals on projects under their jurisdiction, and they serve without compensation but are paid travel and subsistence expenses. [More]

TRB Webinar: Animal-Vehicle Collisions May 12, 2009  TRB will conduct a web briefing or “Webinar” on Tuesday, May 12, 2009, from 2:00 p.m. to 3:30 p.m. EDT that will examine efforts to design and implement mitigation techniques to prevent animal-vehicle collisions.  Participants must register at least 24 hours in advance of the start of the Webinar, space is limited, and there is a fee for non-TRB Sponsor employees. [More]

Truck Tolling-Understanding Industry Tradeoffs When Using or Avoiding Toll Facilities Proposals Due June 25, 2009 TRB’s National Cooperative Freight Research Program (NCFRP) and National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) have issued a request for proposals to identify the value that goods movement businesses seek from the transportation roadway network and their willingness to pay tolls for that value. [More]

Recent Publications

Updated Test and Design Methods for Thermoplastic Drainage Pipe TRB’s National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Report 631: Updated Test and Design Methods for Thermoplastic Drainage Pipe explores a recommended load and resistance factor design (LRFD) specification for thermoplastic pipe used in culverts and drainage systems for highway structures. [More] [Buy it now]

 Literature Review for Providing Access to Public Transportation Stations TRB’s Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP) Web-Only Document 44: Literature Review for Providing Access to Public Transportation Stations describes the results of the literature review associated with a project that is examining various alternatives for providing access to and from stations of new and mature high-capacity public transportation systems, including heavy rail, light rail, commuter rail, and bus rapid transit. [More]

 Cooperative Research Programs Security Research Status Report TRB’s Cooperative Research Program produces a table summarizing more than 80 security and emergency preparedness projects representing over $11 million in the contract research programs for state departments of transportation and the public transportation industry.  Updated monthly. [More]

Transportation Security: A Summary of Transportation Research Board Activities – A slideshow summary of the Transportation Research Board’s pre- and post-September 11, 2001, transportation security activities is updated monthly.  [More]

Analysis and Recommendations for Developing Integrated Airport Information Systems – TRB’s Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP) Web-Only Document 1: Analysis and Recommendations for Developing Integrated Airport Information Systems is a summary of the efforts associated with the development of ACRP Report 13: Integrating Airport Information Systems

Integrating Airport Information Systems TRB’s Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP) Report 13: Integrating Airport Information Systems is designed to help airport mangers and information technology professionals address issues associated with integrating airport information systems.  A summary of the efforts associated with the development of ACRP Report 13 was published online as ACRP Web-Only Document 1: Analysis and Recommendations for Developing Integrated Airport Information Systems. [More]  [Buy it now]

Scoopful of GM and Chrysler News – May 5, 2009

May 5, 2009 at 5:36 pm

 Rumormill: Vauxhall going after city car market with Trixx EV?GM‘s European arm put a toe in the water of the rapidly expanding city car market with its Opel Trixx concept. A few years later, though, GM‘s Carl-Peter Forster indicated that the automaker would not be entering that microcar market after all. Fast forward another couple of years and (surprise!) it looks as if GM may be once again reversing tha…

 REPORT: Penske lines up as potential Saturn suitorGM, SaturnThe typical relationship between automakers and dealerships, of course, is for the dealers to sell the cars that the automaker produces. But with General Motors shedding like a dog in springtime, it’s the dealers who have been looking to buy the brands themselves. Following interest expressed by German dealers to acquire Opel and a gro…

Test Drive A Chevy Traverse, Get A Massage [Carpocalypse]GM]

GM updates state of Saturn, potential buyers being reviewedGM, SaturnGeneral Motors is busy putting the finishing touches on its third (or is it fourth?) viability plan, part of which involves the sale or shut down of the Saturn division. While many were expecting GM to close down Saturn, GM has released a press release to tell the world that the fledgling marquee is on the block, and there are several …

GM Testing Indicates 2010 Chevrolet Equinox Will Offer Best-In-Segment Highway Fuel Economy of 32 mpg
…Internal GM testing of the new 2010 Equinox indicates that the front-wheel drive models with the direct-injected 2.4-liter I-4 engine will offer an EPA estimated 32 mpg on the highway and 22 mpg city. GM expects final official EPA estimates shortly. The 2010 Equinox will likely carry a 32 mpg highway rating. Click to enlarge.At 32 mp..

Magna Confirms Involvement in Potential Opel Transaction…acquisition of GM Europe.

Daily U-Turn: What you missed on 5.4.09
…Chrysler and GM EuropeFiat’s alliance with Chrysler is only the beginning, as the Italian automaker makes a bid at acquiring General Motors’ European operations, including Opel, Vauxhall and Saab. Other news of import Chrysler begins “New Car Company” ad campaign in newspapers 2010 Chevy E…

GM hopes to sell Saturn by the end of 2009
…That GM would sell Saturn has been floating around for what seems like ages now, but the most recent word from GM on the fate of the brand was that the “resolution” had been bumped up in the schedule to the end of 2009. GM just released a statement about the Saturn sale, saying that, “A number of potential buyers have surfaced and expressed inte…

Chrysler Predicts Profit by 2012 Chrysler lost $16.8 billion last year and expects to lose another $4.7 billion this year before turning profitable in 2012, a court filing shows.

Saab denies talks with Fiat…partnership with Chrysler, according to Saab CEO Jan-Ake Jonsson, the Swedish automaker isn’t part of the deal.Jonsson said Saab is currently being courted by ten potential buyers, but Fiat isn’t one of them. Saab spokesman, Eric Geers went on to tell Reuters, “We now have ten very serious interested parties which have visited us in Trollhattan ..

REPORT: Next Chrysler CEO salary capped at $500,000Chrysler, LLC., Earnings/FinancialsThe next chief executive of Chrysler will be tasked with bringing the company out of bankruptcy, restructuring into a profitable business, repaying government loans (if and when they do so at all), integrating Fiat technology and retaining jobs wherever possible. Oh, and he or she will have to do it all on no m…

Chrysler pursuing clause to award Fiat $35 million if deal falls apartChrysler, LLC., Earnings/Financials, FIATThink Fiat’s getting a pretty sweet deal with Chrysler? The Italian automaker is, after all, gaining a 20% stake in the troubled American automaker, plus local manufacturing capacity and access to its dealer networks, all without paying a thin dime. Not a bad deal, but Chrysler‘s hard at work trying to ma…

One Thing Separating Chrysler HQ From Most Malls [Carpocalypse]…explained earlier Chrysler‘s Auburn Hills, MI Headquarters was designed to easily convert into a mall if it needed the dues. However, there’s one thing we neglected to mention separating Chrysler‘s HQ from most malls. As you see below, if you scroll your Google map a little bit to the right you’ll find the 1.8 mile-long test track that sits adja…

What does Chrysler’s restructuring plan have in store for the Viper?Chrysler, LLC., Dodge, FIAT Dodge Viper SRT-10 – Click above for a high-res image gallery Long before factors like bankruptcy and Fiat’s involvement, Chrysler was looking to offload the Viper line. Several potential buyers were reportedly being considered, but months down the line no deal has been announced. In the meantime, of course, Chrysler …

Chrysler To Kill Jeep Wrangler? [Carpocalypse]…from the Chrysler bankruptcy cast doubt on the future of the Jeep Wrangler. Is somebody in Auburn Hills taking crazy-pills? Killing off weak models in order to save the strong is something Chrysler is going to have to do if it ever wants to be a profitable automaker again, but considering putting the Wrangler on such a sacrificial altar is somet…

Chrysler HQ designed for mall duty if automaker leavesChrysler, LLC., Humor Chrysler HQ a mall? Click above for high-res image gallery Leave it to our friends at Jalopnik to discover this most interesting fact about Chrysler‘s headquarters in Auburn Hills, Michigan. The 500-acre site that’s crowned by a glass tower with a 35-foot tall Pentastar window visible from I-75 was reportedly designed in su…

Fiat Delivers Custom Ducato For Papal Service [Custom Cars]…of the Chrysler faithful, Fiat has delivered a customized Ducato van to the Papal motorpool for use in touring parts of the Italian countryside destroyed by the recent earthquake. From the outside, the Ducato appears to be any other run-of-the-mill Italian Civil Defense Force vehicle, wearing the proper paint job to fit right in, but inside it’s…

Chrysler HQ Designed To Convert Into Shopping Mall [Carpocalypse]
Chrysler’s corporate headquarters in Auburn Hills appears to be a shopping mall. This is not an accident. BusinessWeek published an article two weeks ago about the value of Chrysler’s various assets in anticipation of its bankruptcy, which has since happened. Here’s the most interesting bit: The Chrysler headquarters building is a spectacular si…

UAW Wants To Get Rid Of Chrysler Share Quickly [Carpocalypse]
…t want Chrysler either. [Reuters]

Job Impacts of Spending on Public Transportation: An Update – APTA study says $1B public transportation spending creates 30,000 jobs

May 4, 2009 at 6:39 pm

(Source: American Public Transportation Association via More Riders)

Many transportation industry minds are wondering what is the tangible benefits from all this investment in transit? After spending nearly one billion dollars through their public transportation agencies, what do the taxpayers stand to reap?

 According to a new report by the American Public Transportation Association, 30,000 jobs (besides better public transportation).   That comes out to one new job for every $33,333 in spending. Not bad at all, as economic development projects go.   

The study report released on April 29th shows that investing in public transportation provides jobs to the American workers who may need them the most.  Job Impacts of Spending on Public Transportation: an Update shows that two-thirds (67 percent) of the jobs created by capital investment in the public transit industry replaces lost blue-collar jobs with “green jobs” in the public transit sector.  The Economic Development Research Group prepared the study for the American Public Transportation Association (APTA). 

Overall, the study shows an investment of one billion dollars in public transportation supports and creates 30,000 jobs in a variety of sectors.  Based on these projections, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA), which provides $8.4 billion for public transportation projects, will create approximately 252,000 jobs for Americans and help transit systems meet the steadily growing demand for public transit services.  APTA released the study at the U.S. House of Representatives Transportation and Infrastructure Committee hearing Recovery Act: 10-Week Progress Report for Transportation and Infrastructure Programs.

“The ultimate goal in any economic recovery plan should be to not create just any type of job, but rather to invest in and focus on areas particularly hit hard by the economic downturn,” said William W. Millar, APTA president.  “The investment in public transit not only produces green jobs but also provides for a more sustainable transportation system that will help reduce our dependence on foreign oil and lessen the transportation sector’s impact on the environment.”

The study reveals that two out of three (67 percent) of these new construction and manufacturing “green jobs” resulting from public transit capital investment typically fall in the category of Blue-Collar Semi-Skilled (59 percent) and Blue-Collar Skilled (8 percent).  These jobs include positions in manufacturing, service, repair worker, drivers, crew, ticket agents and construction. 

In addition, 33 percent of the new jobs as a result of public transit investment fall in the White-Collar Skilled (32 percent) or White Collar Semi-Skilled (1 percent) category.  These jobs include clerical, managerial and technical engineers.

Some of the key findings from this study are here:

  • The rate for federal funding of public transportation reflects a specific mix of capital investment and preventive maintenance funding as allowable by law.  Under current federal law, an estimated 30,000 jobs are supported per billion dollars of spending.

  • The national rate can vary from of 24,000 to 41,000 jobs per billion dollars of spending, depending on the spending mix.  The lower figure holds for spending on capital investments (vehicles and facilities), while the higher figure holds for spending on transit system operations. In reality, it is not logical to spend money on vehicles and not use them, nor is it logical to operate vehicles forever without any purchases of new equipment.  For these reasons, the average rate is a more meaningful number.

  • Looking across the entire $47 billion spent on public transportation in the US each year, there is an average rate of approximately 36,000 jobs per billion dollars of public transportation spending (i.e., 36 jobs per million dollars of spending).  This figure is based on the national mix of public transportation spending as of 2007.  It includes a direct effect of spending in transportation related manufacturing, construction and operations as well as orders to suppliers or by re-spending of worker income on consumer purchases.

The rate of jobs supported per billion dollars of spending will continue to change every year, as prices change and technologies evolve. 

Click here to read the entire report in HTML & to download a copy of the report in PDF format.  For those who like to stay without leaving this window, here is a read-only copy of the PDF report.

Investment Bank Declares: The World Is Running Out of Oil. Soon.

May 4, 2009 at 2:33 pm

(Source: The Infrastructurist)

emptyThe so-called peak oil debate has taken many twists and turns over the years. After long being an oddball survivalist preoccupation, the debate gathered mainstream momentum a few years ago as oil prices began a long ascent from around $30 per barrel to $147, where they topped out last summer. By the time a barrel of West Texas crude was rising eight bucks a day, scarcity seemed like the best and only explanation–that no matter how hard we tried, we couldn’t pump enough oil to meet demand.  OPEC cut production, inventories rose, and it seemed like, in fact, we had plenty of oil for the foreseeable future and the whole thing had just been hedge fund shenanigans.

Maybe not, Raymond James now cautions. “We believe that the oil market has already crossed over to the downward sloping side” of all-time total production, say analysts at the financial services company. While cautioning that nobody but historians can be sure, they believe production peaked in 2007 for non-OPEC countries (Russia, Norway, Mexico, etc.) and last year for OPEC (Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Iran, etc.). “It is entirely intuitive to conclude that if both OPEC and non-OPEC production posted declines against the backdrop of $100/bbl oil–when the obvious economic incentive was to pump at full blast–those declines had to have come for involuntary reasons such as the inherent geological limits of oil fields.” In other words, we had a perfect environment for testing the peak oil hypothesis, and the results are in. We’ve peaked.

My reponse? Yawn. We’re all unemployed Prius drivers anyway these days. Oil is an anachronism.

The biggest immediate crisis would be in transporation, because that’s where most of our oil goes. When gas hit $4 per gallon last spring, the financial strain was hitting the breaking point for many households–particularly outer suburban households. The arrangement of many American cities started to look insane: Working class people commuting 50 miles by car each way to their jobs?

But, honestly, that’s only what stupid, short-sighted people like me say. Eventually demand will recover and/or supply will continue to fall, and we’ll get back to a place where oil costs $147 a barrel. But, if these Raymond James analysts are right, this time it will just keep going up. Then it will go up more. And so on, forever.

The answers in this scenario would have to be rapid. No 30-year development plans. Instead: find cheap and efficient ways of getting lots of people around, and find them pronto. As a start, that would mean making it much easier for people to ride bikes, take trains, and form van pools.

Peak oil has always been an eye-roller in the establishment debate. It’s not clear that Obama has ever even been *asked* about it.

Click here to read the entire article.