(Source: NPR’s Talk of the Nation)

This evening I was listening to an interesting piece (click here to listen to the audio) on NPR’s Talk of the Nation hosted by Neal Conan.  The program’s guest was Chris Steiner, author of this book: $20 Per Gallon: How the Inevitable Rise in the Price of Gasoline Will Change Our Lives for the Better, who says our lives would be a lot happier and healthier if gas prices rose into the double digits.

Image Courtesy: NPR

Last year, gas prices soared over four dollars a gallon and Americans responded by driving a hundred billion fewer miles than the year before. Right now, at $2.50 a gallon or so, things seem back to normal. But writer Christopher Steiner argues that’s a delusion. He thinks we need to prepare for life at six, 10, even 20 dollars a gallon, prices which will change a lot more than our driving habits. They will transform what we eat, where we live, and how we view the world. And while there will be losers, he believes the airline industry will largely disappear, for example, for the most part, he asserts our lives will be better.

The following excerpt from his book paints a scary (and also good) picture:  Many people, quite understandably, don’t consider the implications of expensive gasoline so grand. The fact remains that the price of oil will inevitably rise, however. Two simple factors are responsible: first, we’re running out of oil (albeit slowly) and second, world demand will continue to rise for decades. We use six barrels of oil for every one we find. Half of the world’s petroleum comes from 3% of its oil fields — and those fields are old. The average age of the world’s 14 largest oil fields: 50 years, the exact age when most fields’ productions start an irreversible ebb. On the demand side, consider this: There are 1 billion people on the globe living what would be considered an American-style life, including ourselves. By 2040, that number will triple. The world’s burgeoning middle class will demand oil and it will get oil. Steady price increases are academic. Economics 101: Supply down, Demand up = higher prices.

The changes to our society will begin at $6 per gallon and continue on from there, affecting things far beyond the kinds of cars we drive and how often we drive them. America’s obesity rate will fall. Mass transit will spread across the country. Plane graveyards will overflow. We’ll lose the option to cheaply travel by plane, but high-speed train networks will slowly snake state to state. Disneyworld will lock its gates, Las Vegas’ strip will shrink to half its size. Our air will be cleaner. Cities like Detroit, St. Louis, Pittsburgh and Milwaukee will revive at $12 per gallon, their streets rife with commerce, people and stores. The exurbs of America, where we’ve poured so much of our wealth during the last several decades, will atrophy, destroying the equity of those who held fast. Wal-Mart will go bankrupt at $14 per gallon and manufacturing jobs will return to the U.S. en masse. When gas reaches $16 per gallon, Michael Pollan will get the food world he lobbies for in The Omnivore’s Dilemma.

Recently, NY Times has also reviewed Mr. Steiner’s work.  Writing about this NY Times review on his blog, Mr. Steiner says ” The Times neither praised the book nor panned it. The review proceeded as cautious and as neutral as would seem possible, with a bit of skepticism tossed in. It was reviewed in the Business Section, however, not in Styles or Books, so that may explain the stern pragmatism of the reviewer.”

Here is an excerpt from NY Times review:  “The book’s arguments are sometimes overstated in hyperbolic prose. In the chapter about the end of the airline industry as we know it, it says that some companies will be “permanently torpedoed” by high gas prices. It warns that a “giant herd of people” will lose their jobs. And it says that our grandchildren will “undoubtedly gawp in awe” when we recount our childhood trips to Disneyland. Well, that’s something to look forward to in our old age.”

If you are one of  those people who have already read his book, let us know what do you think.  Worth a buy??

Click here to read the entire transcript from this interview.

Do you know that over 90% of the world’s fatalities on the roads occur in low-income and middle-income countries, which have only 48% of the world’s registered vehicles?

Image Courtesy: World Health Organization

Approximately 1.3 million people die each year on the world’s roads, and between 20 and 50 million sustain non-fatal injuries. In most regions of the world this epidemic of road traffic injuries is still increasing. In the past five years most countries have endorsed the recommendations of the World report on road traffic injury prevention which give guidance on how countries can implement a comprehensive approach to improving road safety and reducing the death toll on their roads.

To date, however, there has been no global assessment of road safety that indicates the extent to which this approach is being implemented. This Global status report on road safety is  the first broad assessment of the status of road safety in 178 countries, using data drawn from a standardized survey conducted in 2008.

The results show that road traffic injuries remain an important public health problem, particularly for low-income and middle-income countries. Pedestrians, cyclists and motorcyclists make up almost half of those killed on the roads, highlighting the need for these road users to be given more attention in road safety programmes.

Image Courtesy: Apture

The results also suggest that in many countries road safety laws need to be made more comprehensive while enforcement should be strengthened. TheGlobal status report on road safety results clearly show that significantly more action is needed to make the world’s roads safer.

The results provide a benchmark that countries can use to assess their road safety position relative to other countries, while internationally the data presented can collectively be considered as a global “baseline” against which progress over time can be measured.  Here is a quick summary of key findings from WHO’s Director-General, Dr. Margaret Chan’s  statement during the June 15, 2009 release of the report in New York City:

• Over 90% of these deaths occur in low-income and middle-income countries, which have less than half of the world’s registered vehicles.
• Second, the report highlights that nearly half of those dying on the world’s roads are pedestrians, cyclists or motorcyclists. These people, who lack the protective shell of a car, are particularly vulnerable to severe and fatal injuries following a crash.  In some low-income and middle-income countries, this proportion is even higher, with up to 80% of road traffic deaths among these vulnerable groups. Clearly we are not giving enough attention to the needs of pedestrians, cyclists and motorcyclists, many of whom end up in clinics and emergency rooms, overloading already stretched health-care systems.
• Third, the report shows that, in many countries, the laws needed to protect people are either not in place or too limited in their scope. Indeed, only 15% of countries have comprehensive laws on all the risk factors we measured. And even when legislation is adequate, most countries report that enforcement is low.  The development and effective enforcement of legislation are key ways to reduce drink-driving and excessive speed, and to increase the use of helmets, seat-belts and child restraints.
• Finally, the report demonstrates that in many countries information about road traffic injuries is scarce. To set priorities and target and evaluate their actions, countries need to know the size of the problem, and additional information such as which groups are most affected.

Click here to access the PDF report.

The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety recently reported that motorcyclists who ride racing style motorcycles known as "supersports" have driver death rates "nearly 4 times higher than motorcyclists who ride all other types of bikes." Capable of extreme acceleration and speed, supersports are particularly popular with young riders.

The Bureau of Transportation Statistics of the Research and Innovative Technology Administration today released “Motorcycle Trends in the United States”, a special report on the current and emerging trends involving street-legal motorcycles.  During the last decade there has been a significant increase in the number of motorcycle sales and registrations in the United States.  At the same time there has been a shift in the demographics of motorcycle users and increased focus on motorcycle safety issues. This report focuses on the current and emerging trends of vehicles, vehicle registrations, owner demographics, training and safetyinvolving street-legal (on-road and dual-purpose) motorcycles. Seen below is an extract of the report’s sections.

Vehicles

In the United States, although no universal or official definition exists, a motorcycle is a two- or three-wheel powered vehicle designed for on-road, off-road, or dual-purpose (on and off-road) use. On-road and dual-purpose motorcycles must meet federal and state certification standards and be licensed (registered) for use on public roadways, although light powered two-wheel vehicles with engines smaller than 50cc, known as mopeds or light scooters, as well as motorized bicycles, are typically allowed to operate on public roadways without registration. Motorcycle designs, technologies, and gear are expanding and evolving rapidly. While there is no universal standard, street-legal motorcycles in the United States are often grouped as shown in Box A. Laws regulating motorcycle equipment requirements for on-highway (street-legal) or off-highway operation, and insurance, age, licensing, and training requirements, vary across the U.S. ¹

Vehicle Registrations and Sales

Because the majority of motorcycles in use must be registered for operations on public highways, registrations provide some indication of the number of motorcycles in use on public roadways each year. Motorcycle registrations in the United States have grown each of the past 10 years, from 3,826,373 in 1997 to 6,678,958 in 2006—a 75 percent increase overall.² Sales of new street-legal motorcycles grew even more sharply over the same period, from 260,000 in 1997 to 892,000 in 2006 (a 243 percent increase), but declined slightly to 885,000 in 2007 (table 1).^{3 , 4}

Motorcycle engine sizes and motorcycle weights are increasing in the United States. While new sales of motorcycles with engines of 750cc or more increased 54.0 percent in 2003 compared to 1998, and those with midsized engines of 450-749cc increased 16.6 percent, sales of motorcycles with smaller engine sizes decreased during the same period, especially in the midsized 350-449cc category, which declined 60.1 percent (table 2).

Between 2005 and 2007, sales of sport bikes (including supersport bikes) increased from 16 to 19 percent of all motorcycle sales (including off-road bikes, which are not distinguished from on-road motorcycles in the available total sales data); sales of touring bikes increased from 13 to 15 percent; sales of dual-purpose bikes increased from 3 to 4 percent, while sales of off-highway bikes decreased from 27 to 22 percent of total motorcycle sales (table 3).

During the first three quarters of 2008, total new on-highway (i.e., street-legal) motorcycle sales (excluding dual purpose motorcycles and scooters) declined 2.1 percent from the corresponding period in 2007, with reported sales of 548,747 in 2008 compared to 560,529 in 2007. Dual purpose motorcycle sales increased 29.4 percent, with sales of 39,805 units during the first three quarters of 2008 compared to 30,759 units during the same period of 2007. Concurrent with record fuel prices in 2008, scooter sales increased 50.6 percent. There were 69,227 units sold in the first three quarters of 2008 compared to 45,975 units sold in the first three quarters of 2007. Combining data for on highway motorcycles, dual motorcycles, and scooters gives total sales of 657,779 during the first three quarters of 2008 as compared to 637,263 during the same period of 2007, a modest 3.22 percent increase in units sold.⁵

Motorcycle Owner Demographics

Survey data from the Motorcycle Industry Council on motorcycle owner demographics for the 1985 to 2003 period reveals a shift towards older owners. The median age of owners increased from 27.1 years in 1985 to 41.0 years in 2003. From 1985 to 2003, the percentage of owners 40–49 years old increased from 13.2 to 27.9 percent, and the percentage of owners 50+ years old increased from 8.1 to 25.1 percent (table 4). Also, survey results for 2003 indicated that 90 percent of owners were male, while survey results for 1998 indicated that 92 percent of owners were male, a slight—but probably not statistically significant—trend consistent with growing female ownership.

Training

The Motorcycle Safety Foundation (MSF) offers motorcycle rider education and training programs and courses, and supports governmental programs by participating in research and public awareness campaigns and providing technical assistance to state training and licensing programs. ⁶ The MSF reports that about 4.5 million riders have graduated from their rider training courses since 1974. The Motorcycle Industry Council cites MSF data showing that the number of students trained in MSF courses has increased steadily from about 130,000 in 1996 to about 370,000 in 2006. During the same period, there has been an increase in MSF course training sites from about 875 to about 2,125. In 2006, there were just over 9,000 MSF certified RiderCoaches (experienced motorcyclists who complete an intensive preparation course to become trainers) compared to only 3,500 in 1996.

Most recently, the National Traffic Safety Division (NTSD) of the Transportation Safety Institute (http://www.tsi.dot.gov/), Research and Innovative Technology Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation developed a course on motorcycle safety program coordination (MSPC) to train motorcycle safety program managers at the state and federal level on the best practices, program fundamentals, and latest strategies for effective motorcycle program management. The MSPC course is sponsored by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and intended to provide training to State Highway Safety Office program personnel and NHTSA Regional Program Managers to enable them to better facilitate and support a comprehensive motorcycle safety program in their state or region. The second of two pilot courses was completed in September 2008, with final course revisions based on experience with the pilots to be completed after that.

Safety

The growth in motorcycle sales and registrations in the United States has been accompanied by an increase in accidents, property losses, injuries, and fatalities involving motorcycles. As shown in table 5, from 1997 to 2007, the annual number of motorcyclist fatalities increased from 2,116 to 5,154 (a 144 percent increase), and the estimated number of motorcyclist injuries increased from 53,000 to 103,000 (a 94 percent increase).⁷

Although motorcycle registrations and vehicle-miles traveled both increased substantially from 1997 to 2006 (the last year for which registration data are currently available), these exposure measures do not account for all the growth in motorcyclist fatalities, because during that period, motorcyclist fatalities increased proportionately more than registrations and vehicle-miles traveled. From 1997 to 2006, annual motorcyclist fatalities increased from 2,116 to 4,837 (a 128.6 percent increase), while fatalities per 100,000 registered motorcycles increased from 55.3 to 72.3 (a 30.7 percent increase), and fatalities per million motorcycle miles of travel increased from 21 to 39 (an 85.7 percent increase).

Also, during that same period, estimated annual motorcyclist injuries increased from 53,000 to 88,000 (a 66 percent increase), while estimated injuries per 100,000 registered motorcycles declined from 1,374 to 1,311 (a 4.8 percent decrease), and estimated injuries per million motorcycle miles of travel increased from 522 to 707 (a 35.4 percent increase).

Analysis of factors accounting for increasing motorcyclist fatality rates is beyond the scope of this brief overview of motorcycle trends, but one trend of concern to public health and safety experts is the relaxation of motorcycle helmet laws (See Box B).^{8 , 9}

Another emerging trend of concern to public health and safety experts is the growing popularity of racing-style motorcycles known as supersports, which have high power-to-weight ratios and are capable of extreme acceleration and speed (160+ mph). Although designed for the racetrack, supersport motorcycles are marketed and sold to the general public and have become especially popular among young riders. On September 11, 2007, the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) released a report showing that “motorcyclists who ride supersports have driver death rates per 10,000 registered motorcycles nearly 4 times higher than motorcyclists who ride all other types of bikes.”¹⁰ The IIHS report also noted that among fatally injured motorcycle drivers, those riding supersports are the youngest, with an average age of 27. For both 2000 and 2005, the death rate for riders of supersport bikes is twice that of sport bike riders and four times that for riders of other motorcycle types (See table 6).

PDF version of the full report, complete with Tables referenced above, can be found at:

http://www.bts.gov/publications/bts_special_report/2009_05_14/index.html

(Source: Autoblog & Consumer Reports)

With Congress on the verge of passing some kind of ‘cash-for-clunkers’ legislation, it’s time to take a look at what cars are worth trading in for the scrappage credit and what models would be better to sell by other means. To help the average Joe Sixpack on the street, Consumer Reports has compiled a list that outlines the Make, model EPA combined mpg rating, etc.  The used cars listed are the newest vehicles likely to be available for less than $3,500, the minimum voucher value. For this to be worthwhile to the consumer, the vehicle’s trade-in value would need to be less than the voucher. Older versions of these vehicles are likely to be worth less, making the vouchers even more appealing. Many of the models have mechanical twins sold by another brand that may qualify, but we have not listed them here. The CR staff has examined the prices and concluded that pre-1993-94 Cadillac DeVilles, Eldorados and Sevilles are all solid candidates.

Click here to read the entire article. In a related news, US Senator Robert P. Casey Jr. (D-PA) has introduced legislation into the Senate that would add motorcycles to the controversial Cash for Clunkers program that was recently passed by both the US House and Senate, though with significantly reduced funding of $1 billion. If passed, the new amended bill would offer a $2,500 rebate for the purchase of a new motorcycle when an older trade-in is scrapped. FYI, Pennsylvania is the home for Harley Davidson, the renowned American motorcycle maker.

(Source: Autobloggreen & Gizmag) & Mc24.no)

It’s been a little while since we last heard from Suzuki regarding its planned hydrogen fuel cell motorcycle, Crosscage, but apparently the Japanese company has been hard at work getting the machine ready for production. According to Ivar Kvadsheim over at MC24.no, teams from both Suzuki and Intelligent Energy were present at the EVS24 event in Stavanger, Norway, with their fuel cell-powered machines.

Image Courtesy: Autobloggreen

In the ENV and Cross Cage used tl cell to produce electricity to recharge the batteries, which in turn drive electric motor. On the prototype cell gives a power of 1 kW and delivers power to a motor that gives 8 horsepower. The new cell will be used in the production models are lighter and more efficient and delivers 1.8 kW, almost double the output. 

Over the last few years, Intelligent Energy has reportedly managed to increase the output of its fuel cell from 1 kW to 1.8 kW, and both its ENV bike and Suzuki Crosscage will use this same power source. That’s great, but the real issue holding up production is the bike’s hydrogen storage tank. It seems the two companies were planning to use a tank from BMW, but later found out that unit was only approved for automotive use and couldn’t be legally used in a motorcycle.  So we have to go through the entire process to create and get approved a new container, “explains Dennis Hayter of Intelligent Energy. 

This process will probably take about four months. Then both Suzuki and Intelligent Energy to run a few months of testing with an approved container, before they can be put into regular production.

It is expected that both ENV and Cross Cage arrive for sale in the course of next year, probably already in the spring. Bikes will have a range of 160 miles and Hayter estimates a price of around 8000 Euro.

According to Gizmag, Suzuki’s Crosscage will feature a single-sided suspension front AND rear. The brushless electric motor’s mounted inline with the rear wheel, and looks-wise it’s so far out there that it’s on its way back again. It was rumoured that Bridgestone’s even developed a special futuristic-looking tyre to match the bike’s oddly tesselated discs.

(Source: BBC)

The need for speed is not normally a selling point for commuters who buy electric vehicles. But it could be.

And you better believe it – this bike moves.

“You can accelerate faster than any car,” says Neal Saiki, who invented the electric motorcycle.

“You’ve got all kinds of power, and it is totally quiet. I think it is a lot like flying.”

Image Courtesy: The Motor Report

A gentle turn of the throttle and the force of the lithium-ion battery pack is transferred directly to the back wheel, sending the bike rocketing down London’s Kings Road.

The experience is vastly different from the ride of a conventional bike. There is no clutch and no need to change gears. Turning the throttle instantly delivers powerful torque, along with just enough chain rattle to remind you that this is still a motorcycle.

Change the software settings, explains Mr Saiki, founder and chief technology officer of Zero Motorcycles, and the bike will deliver zero to 50mph in just five seconds.  While still at college in California, he designed the world’s first helicopter powered by a human.

The invention eventually helped him become a designer of “high altitude research vehicles” for US space agency Nasa, a job he left to start building motorcycles.

“What we’ve done here is to combine the world’s smallest, lightest battery pack with a revolutionary 28 pound (12 kilogramme) frame,” says Mr Saiki, who invented the battery himself and designed the frame from aircraft grade aluminium.

Enough, perhaps, to convince thrill-seeking commuters, though at an expected price of some £8,000 in the UK and a maximum range of 60 miles per charge, the bike may struggle to attract people away from established motorcycle communities.

Zero Motorcycles is pitching the bike as an environmentally friendly alternative to conventional motorcycles.

In terms of fuel economy, there is probably not that much in it, since motorcycles tend not to be all that thirsty in the first place.

But when it comes to emissions it is a clear winner, the company insists, even in countries with coal-fired power stations.

“Although there is some pollution associated with the production of electricity, a Zero motorcycle produces less than an eighth of the CO2 pollution per mile at the power plant than a petrol-powered motorcycle,” Zero declares.  In the video below, you can hear about the Zero S from Neal Saiki himself as he walks through various aspects of its innovative  design & cutting edge technology.  

 It is a claim the conventional bike makers will find hard to refute, not least since they tend not to publish any CO2 figures at all.

Many commuters will be more interested in data on battery charging times, though.

Zero says a four-hour charge using an ordinary household socket will cost six pence and deliver 60 miles of motoring, and Mr Saiki insists the battery pack should be able to deliver such performance for about five years.

“You charge it in the morning and it’ll be ready for lunch,” he says.

“It would cost you $30 (£20) to go from California to New York,” observes Zero’s PR man.

Though allow for the frequent recharging, and the journey would take a long, long time.

Click here to read the entire article.

Roger Taillon test drives a new at Vespa at Vespa of Newport Beach in Newport Beach, Calif., Saturday, April 18, 2009. Under the federal stimulus package, taxpayers can deduct sales and excise taxes on the purchase of a new motorcycle or scooter, and get a 10 percent federal tax credit if they buy plug-in bikes. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

“Even before we quote the price, we tell people how much they can get off the bike,” said Jeff Bosco Biafore, a salesman at the San Jose Motorsport Scooter Center in Northern California.

Under the stimulus plan, the same provision that lets taxpayers deduct sales and excise taxes on the purchase of a new car or truck also applies to a motorcycle or scooter. They also can get a 10 percent federal tax credit if they buy plug-in bikes.

Before the federal incentives kicked in Feb. 17, California offered a $1,500 rebate for certain electric scooters, but there were so many applications that funding for the $1.8 million program for alternative fuel vehicles ran out.

Recently, state air quality regulators approved an additional $5 million in grants for plug-in cars and motorcycles.

With a new job that stretched her commute from 10 to 40 miles a day, freelance film and television editor Cindy Parisotto says she is considering an electric scooter to reduce her commuting costs and carbon footprint.

She’s interested in an electric scooter from Vectrix Corp. that has a top speed of 62 mph and a range of at least 35 miles per charge. She would need to charge the bike everyday, but Parisotto says she figures her electricity bill will be lower than what she spends on gas.

The $10,000 bike also comes with a $450 rebate from the company, meaning she could save about $2,000.

A group of Indian engineering students from Ludhiana successfully build a pollution-free motorbike designed to run on air pressure rather than petrol. Video courtesy of Reuters.

 (Source: Wall Street Journal)

(Source: Institute for Transportation & Development Policy)

Activist Says Jakarta Current Vehicle Growth Leads to Transportation Failure

If the vehicle growth rate in Jakarta continues to hover around tens of percent annually without any breakthrough in transportation and traffic management, the city will be paralyzed by total gridlock by 2014, a nongovernmental organization said Wednesday.

“Total traffic failure is an unbearable risk caused by the city’s failure in transportation and traffic management,” the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy said in a statement sent to The Jakarta Post.

“Traffic jams have degraded the environment and people’s health due to excessive vehicle emissions. They also halt residents’ mobility that, in turn, cause economic losses,” it said.

Jabodetabek, a large-scale metropolitan area with a population of 21 million, consists of Daerah Khusus Ibukota/DKI (Capital Special Region) Jakarta, as the capital city of Indonesia, which is the center of politics, economy and social activities, and 7 local governments (Bodetabek) in the surrounding areas covering Kota (municipality) Bogor, Kabupaten (regency/district) Bogor, Kota Depok, Kota Bekasi, Kabupaten Bekasi, Kota Tangerang, and Kabupaten Tangerang.

Traffic congestion is a chronic problem faced in the Jabodetabek region and the situation is expected to worsen should there be no improvement of any kind made on the existing transportation system. According to a 2005 study,  the economic loss caused by traffic congestion in the region could be as much as $ 68 million per year due to traffic congestion – and this estimate excludes the impacts of traffic congestion and pollution on human health.

Jakarta’s Paratransit Network Still Stuck In Slow Lane 

(Source: Good Magazine)

Click here to read the entire article.