(Source: Guardian, Nigeria, John MAcilree’s weblog & Mysinchew.com)

Some 50 million jobs and US$3.6 trillion of the world’s gross domestic product (GDP) will depend on aviation by 2026, according to a report from Oxford Economics.  The Oxford Economics report provides an in-depth look at the aviation industry’s contribution to global economic development and social prosperity, while considering what that really means for individual countries, regions, towns, families and species.

Image Courtesy: Michael Davis @ Flickr via Apture

The forecast was contained in the report on “Aviation: The Real World Wide Web” by Oxford Economics, a world leader in quantitative analysis and economic forecasting.  The 120 page report is offered along with four page summaries available in English, French, German and Spanish.

In a statement Monday, Oxford Economics highlighted that limiting aviation’s growth to one percent below the current trend would cost six million aviation related jobs and the industry’s GDP contribution by US$600 billion.

Among other things, the report finds that air transport directly employs over 5.5 million people and contributes $425 billion to global GDP, which is more than several members of the G20.”Close to 20 million jobs could be supported by the Asia Pacific region’s air transport sector in 20 years,” it said.

According to the report, aviation’s GDP contribution is around one and a half times the size of the pharmaceutical industry ($270 billion GDP) or the textile industry ($286 billion GDP) and a third bigger than the motor production industry ($322 billion GDP).  When combined with its supply chain and dependent industries, including its contribution to tourism, aviation supports over 33 million jobs and $1.5 trillion GDP. As a country this would rank aviation in eighth position, between Italy and Spain.  An estimated 35 per cent of all trade in manufactured goods travel by air. This is worth some $3.5 trillion.

Oxford Economics said while reduced growth in aviation would have considerably impact on global employment, economic output and social development but it would not necessarily imply lower emissions when the impact of replacement activities and alternative transport are taken into account.

“Aviation currently contributes two percent of worldwide man-made carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and will be no more than three percent by 2050,” it said.

The full report includes a number of case studies, as well as regional summarie,  from around the world about the impact of aviation.

The report acknowledges that aviation has an impact on the environment, but seeks to balance the debate about its future by highlighting the benefits it brings to so many people worldwide. The solution, says Oxford Economics, is policy that supports a sustainable balance between the positive contribution of aviation and the impact of future growth.

The report was commissioned by Airbus, with support from British Airways and EasyJet, but the results are independent and unbiased, says Adrian Cooper, managing director of Oxford Economics.”The conclusions and data in the report are a result of widely accepted economic modelling and Oxford Economics’ extensive knowledge of the aviation industry.